I remember in 2018 I had run across a story about GM announcing a goal to start rolling out self-driving cars as early as 2020, and the accompanying image was of a version of the GM Bolt EV (Electric Vehicle) with no steering wheel and no pedals. When I showed it to friends they reacted with an edge of disbelief and even being somewhat creeped out by the thought, and it was enough for me to even second guess whether the image was a joke, or at the very least an exaggeration.
From what I’ve been reading and following lately on the subject of self-driving technologies, it was no joke. Yes, maybe the timeline was a bit ambitious, and the shock-value of showing the image of a vehicle with no steering wheel was a play by GM to add some shock-value, but the intentions behind the planned rollout have been very calculated and intentional. In fact, the prevailing wisdom is that self-driving is not only an inevitability but in a real sense, it is already here!
In fact, the prevailing wisdom is that self-driving is not only an inevitability but in a real sense, it is already here!
What would you say if I told you that there were over 400,000 cars on the road that are already driving in full self-driving mode? This revelation is kind of shocking when you hear it, but pretty much every model of Tesla has been logging “autonomous driving” miles since at least 2018, logging almost 2-billion self-driving miles to-date (citation: Forbes, November 8, 2019). Some level of self-driving functions have been included in every Tesla model (S, X, 3, and now Y) since as early as February 2017, and all Tesla cars released since April 2019 have been equipped with the full-autonomous chip. Since then there has been a steady progression from Autopilot through full autonomous driving (citation: Tech Crunch, April 22, 2019).
Tesla’s model has been somewhat brilliant: While these 400,000+ cars are no actually fully functioning in reality in self-driving mode, they actually ‘think’ that they are. What’s going on under the hood, so to speak, is that they are actually making visual autonomous driving decisions continually, every day, and under every road and weather condition. All of that data is being recorded, aggregated, and shared (privately and anonymously) with Tesla’s main computers, and any decisions that are being made by the actual human driver of the car are compared and contrasted with what the car itself thinks it should be doing.
What’s smart about this?
By comparing the fringe cases between what the car would have done and what human drivers actually did in unusual driving situations, each and everyone’s Teslas are actually contributing to progressive improvements as time wears on and more and more miles get logged. What happens when there is a confusing temporary lane barrier that the car might not fully recognize? Can it learn from what the driver does? What about a bicycle mounted on the back of a car, vs. a bicycle crossing the road right behind a car? Can the car tell the difference? Tesla says it can. And it’s getting better all the time. Each and every ‘outlier’ situation gets logged and flagged, and additional visual reference materials get updated to make everyone’s cars learn to be safer all the time.
It is a very long watch, but it is quite interesting to review Tesla’s 2:35 long “Tesla Autonomy Day 2019” event that took place in Palo Alto, CA on April 23, 2019. In that event, Tesla breaks down their tech and tells how their future plans well ultimately achieve fully autonomous driving within the next two years, limited only by jurisdictional regulations in different parts of the country.
Note: Here is an abridged version of the event that claims to cover the highlights of the event in under five minutes…
At this point, every major car manufacturer has an Electric Vehicle and Autonomous Driving plan and timeline. You can learn about some of the announced programs (and associated timelines) from the top 11 global auto manufacturers here.
What’s interesting about Tesla’s plans (and you can hear about this in the full “Tesla Autonomy Day 2019” video above), is that as soon as they are allowed to turn on fully autonomous mode in likely 500,000 to 800,000 vehicles by the point they are allowed to by various government entities, each car owner will be given the option to use their Tesla app to “turn on” a mode in which their car can go to work for them during the day while they are at work. Yes, you heard it right: If you choose to let your car go off by itself, it can independently offer ridesharing service to others without you—or any other driver for that matter—being present in the car. This will mean that your car can be earning money for you while you are at work or off doing other things.
Whatever happens, and whatever the timeline happens to be, autonomous driving is a reality, and many billions of dollars are being invested by the automotive world to prove it. In fact, part of the reason that Tesla’s stock prices have soared to over $1,200 per share (as-of July 3, 2020 at $1,208.66 per share) is precisely because of how much of the market share of autonomous driving Tesla is likely to take.
We are likely to add to this story as more information comes out. In the mean time please feel free to check out some of these reference links at the bottom of the post. We will update them as we run across more.
Tesla’s Autopilot Page: (https://www.tesla.com/support/autopilot)
Forbes Article (updated July 3, 2020): “Tesla: King Of Self-Driving Cars? Unbelievable ”
GM’s Autonomous Driving Plan (December 23, 2019): “GM pushes feds to approve Chevy Bolts with no steering wheel”